The Absolute Best Predictor of Step 2 CK Scores

This is an article about Step 2 that is useful long before dedicated test prep! Whether you are in the midst of your dedicated study time or more than a year out, read on to find out what the best score predictor is for USMLE Step 2 CK!

Some would argue that one of the most important–and often challenging–aspects of preparing for Step is knowing when you are ready to sit for the exam. When deciding how long to prepare for Step 2 CK it is important to consider a few factors that might predict your performance including:

• How exam prep has gone in the past.
• How you are hoping to score and how that compares to prior performance.
• How you have performed in medical school.

How Has Exam Prep Gone in the Past?

If you were able to breeze through 80 to 100 UWorld questions daily during your Step 1 preparation, you might need less study time compared to those who benefited from a more deliberate pace. If you experienced early burnout in your dedicated study period, consider initiating your studies earlier, incorporating test prep alongside clinical responsibilities to potentially shorten your dedicated study time. Having an established Anki deck or annotated Step study materials may reduce the required study duration compared to starting from scratch.

Although I already had an anki deck that I built throughout the course of my clinical rotations, I knew from studying for Step 1 that I tend to move slowly through UWorld. So I would need more time to get through all of the questions than some of my classmates who were able to cruise through several blocks in a day. Knowing this ahead of time helped me plan out my study schedule better for Step 2.

Using Past Examinations as a Score Predictor: What is Your Goal Score and How Does That Compare to Your Prior Performance on Exams?

Although we no longer have your Step 1 as a predictor of your Step 2 performance, medical students usually have a broad sense of their test-taking abilities relative to peers. Take a moment to honestly assess the average percentile you typically achieve in medical school examinations, encompassing NBME shelf exams, UWSAs, and similar assessments. While this metric may be less reliable with varied percentiles, consistently landing around, let’s say, the 65th percentile could be a reasonable predictor of your potential rank on this exam.

Many students find that using tools like step 2 score predictors help gauge where they stand before the exam. Among the most trusted resources are the NBME practice tests, with forms 11 and 13 being perceived by students as the most predictive NBME for Step 2 CK. However, others find that UWorld Self Assessments (UWSA) – particularly UWSA2 – offers more accurate predictions for test day. Based on informal student consensus on forums, UWSA2 tends to closely align with final Step 2 CK performance, providing students with additional confidence.

While both NBMEs and UWSA practice tests serve as valuable indicators of readiness, tools like the USMLE Step 2 score predictor also help track progress during study periods. These predictors calculate an estimated score based on performance in practice tests, offering insights into how preparation is translating into results. For instance, the most predictive Step 2 practice tests can give a clearer indication of scoring trends. However, these tests are only one part of the puzzle. Consistent performance across exams, shelf assessments, and clinical evaluations remains the best predictor of success.

How Have You Performed So Far in Medical School? How Well Do You Remember Specific Clinical Cases?

The reason that this article holds value long before your dedicated study period is that studies have shown that the best predictor of Step 2 CK performance is your performance in medical school. Now, I should mention that of course these are correlational studies. It is reasonable that people who may have a natural skill in test taking would perform well on medical school examinations as well as Step exams. With that said, there is also undeniable value in spaced repetition of learning and application of knowledge in clerkships.

Students with better performance on preclinical exams, shelf exams, and clinical evaluations all tended to perform better on Step 2 CK. It can be easy to fall into the trap of viewing your clinical work as a distraction from your studying. However, your time with patients is invaluable because it helps you to be a better doctor (after all, this is the ultimate goal) and it provides context for these challenging concepts. I still remember the patients in medical school who helped me to remember neurological pathways, surgical complications, and endocrine feedback loops. When it came time for me to study and answer questions on these topics it was my clinical time, not the anki cards, that helped me.

Interestingly, there is also a relationship between test scores and extracurricular activities. Some studies have even found a correlation between participation in free clinics or peer tutoring programs and higher test scores. Put simply, all of your efforts over the past few years hold value in preparing you for this exam and perhaps the efforts with meaning are even more effective than rote memorization.

Best Predictor to Help You Know When You Are Ready to Take Step 2 CK

These are all ways to predict the general range of where your Step 2 CK score may fall. However, these metrics fall short in determining when you are ready to sit for this exam. Scores are fluid and are certainly related to your study efforts. Just because you scored within a certain percentile range on previous exams does not guarantee that you will fall within that range on all exams moving forward. When I was studying for Step 2, the scores on my practice exams were variable but showed an overall trend in the direction of my final score on Step 2. Because of this, it is also important to have markers of your progress and performance during your study period and leading up to the exam.

UWorld

Your score on UWorld questions may feel like a marker of your progress. However, your percentile on UWorld is not an accurate predictor of how you should expect to perform on Step 2 CK. As a reminder, UWorld is a learning resource, not a testing resource. There is such a broad spectrum of how students use UWorld (some complete it twice, some take blocks on timed mode, some take blocks on tutor mode… you get the picture). So the percentiles do not hold any appreciable meaning.

Practice Exams

In addition to daily UWorld blocks, your study plan should also include practice tests in the form of NBMEs (CCSSAs — Comprehensive Clinical Science Self-Assessments) and UWSAs (UWorld Self Assessments). These practice exams are essential for improving your stamina for test day and also for providing a more meaningful predictor of how you may expect to perform on Step 2 CK. There are benefits and shortcomings to each of these testing formats.

CCSSAs

CCSSAs are released by the NBME and many people feel that these questions more closely resemble the question format that you will see on test day. These question stems are generally somewhat shorter and the software is nearly identical to what you will see on test day. There are several NBMEs available and the more data you have, the more accurately you will be able to predict your score. With that said, based on informal student reporting, the best NBME predictors seem to be forms 11 and 13 (however some feel that form 13 underscores slightly).

UWSAs

UWSAs also have their strengths. Most notably, there are two UWSAs that are included in the price of your UWorld subscription (compared to the $60 cost of each NBME practice test). These tests are also somewhat longer (although still not as long as the official test), which helps to more closely simulate your test day. If time allows, you should complete both UWSAs, but UWSA2 seems to be the best predictor of your Step 2 CK score. When comparing NBMEs and UWSA, UWSA 2 seems to correlate most closely with test-day performance.

When I was preparing for Step 2, I was also concerned about improving my stamina for test day. For this reason, I felt that it was important to progressively increase the number of questions I would sit down to do at any given time. In order to have a more accurate representation of what test day would feel like, I added 1-2 additional blocks at the end of my practice exams.

Score Predictor Calculators

• PredictMyStepScore.com

• • Pros: This tool allows users to input multiple practice exam scores, providing a customized range prediction for Step 2 CK based on their performance history. It is user-friendly and designed to accommodate results from different exams, which can give a more comprehensive score estimate.

• • Cons: The calculator relies on self-reported data, which introduces some variability and lack of standardization. Additionally, its predictions can be skewed if input data isn’t current or accurately reported.

• AMBOSS Score Predictor

• • Pros: This USMLE Step 2 score predictor offers a reliable score prediction feature integrated with its study resources, allowing users to track their progress. Its predictor adjusts based on real-time practice test performance and gives a clear target score to aim for.

• • Cons: This calculator may lean more heavily on AMBOSS data, which could limit users who rely more on other resources, such as UWorld.

• RiseMedTutors Score Predictor

• • Pros: This Step 2 CK score predictor is designed with a focus on precision, drawing from multiple student data points. It’s tailored to medical students preparing for Step 2 CK and provides a detailed range based on current study performance.

• • Cons: Being a relatively newer tool, it may not have the same depth of user data as more established platforms, potentially affecting the reliability of predictions.

• ProspectiveDoctor Score Estimator

• • Pros: The estimator is widely used and offers predictions based on a mix of previous practice exam scores and self-reported Step 2 CK scores. It’s regarded for its simple interface and ease of use.

• • Cons: The tool’s reliance on self-reported data means that predictions may vary in accuracy. As with other calculators, it may not be the most reliable during early stages of preparation due to the variability in data.

As a rule of thumb, you are ready to sit for the exam when you are performing on practice tests within a score range that you would be satisfied with on test day. Despite what you may read online about over-prediction and under-prediction of certain exams, these exams are getting closer and closer to accurately predicting scores and you should not expect your test day performance to be significantly different. So go out there and give it your all! Take each practice test seriously and make sure to congratulate yourself on all that you have done to get here today!

Get prepared today! Schedule your free consultation with Elite Medical Prep to learn more about how we can help you make the most of the time you have to study for your Step 2 CK exam!